What this is

SOKREN Global Operations is a situational-awareness platform built on open-source intelligence (OSINT). The monitor plots tracked areas of interest on a globe by intelligence priority, layers live signals over them, and pairs each area of interest with a structured analytic assessment: what is happening, why, and what is likely next. It is free to read. Nothing requires an account.

How to read it

• Priority is the editorial tier of an area of interest: P1 Critical, P2 High, P3 Medium, P4 Low. Cyan-ringed markers are emerging flashpoints.
• Layers add live context: military aircraft worldwide, all traffic within 250 nm of a selected area of interest, live AIS vessel positions around chokepoints and the selected area of interest, maritime chokepoints, and the world's submarine cable systems.
• Live signals inside an area of interest are proximity counts from those layers. Co-location is a cue to look, not corroboration.
• Indicators & Warnings are explicit, pre-stated signs that an area of interest is changing. Some are checked automatically against the live layers (military air activity, vessels going dark, tanker traffic, reporting volume); others are set by an analyst with a dated note naming the source. Each reads tripped, watch, not met or no data — missing data is always shown as missing, never as “not met”. They roll up to Quiet, Elevated or Warning (amber or pulsing red ring on the map). Indicators marked DRAFT are awaiting analyst review and are not counted. Indicators sit beside the Threat Index; they do not change it.
• Areas of Interest holds everything examined in depth: country pages, conflicts and threats, emerging threats, intel reports, and news sorted by topic. A country page lists what trusted outlets reported about that country in the past two weeks, grouped into developments and ranked by a rule printed on the page. It is ranked by machine from headlines, with no AI-written text, and is not a SOKREN assessment. Countries with a listed development and no tracked area of interest also have a marker on the map, with a provisional priority and index: a machine reading of how much trusted reporting there is, of what kind and how far it reaches. It is not an analyst score, is labelled provisional wherever it appears, and never reaches Critical. Topic pages sort headlines by their wording. Intel Reports lists a full report, to read or download as PDF, for every area of interest with an assessment update; each update carries its area\u2019s report, and the top ten are also bound into one briefing book. A report is the assessment as of its date; assessments are reviewed every Monday and the updates filed since then are listed beside it. The reports are built from the same assessments shown on the site.
• Search (⌘K / Ctrl+K) finds countries, areas of interest, chokepoints, cables, and current headlines, and can run a live coverage search on any topic.

SOKREN Threat Index

Methods

Each area of interest carries an Analysis of Competing Hypotheses with a stated discriminator, linchpin (key-assumption) analysis with explicit failure consequences, and an adapted SWOT (stabilizing factors, vulnerabilities, de-escalation paths, escalation drivers). Probabilities are structured analyst judgments consistent with ICD 203 estimative language, not model outputs. Assessments are dated and revised as events move.

Forecasts and track record

Every outlook probability SOKREN publishes is logged as a forecast on the Track Record page and scored once the outcome is known.

• How questions are written. Each forecast is specific, time-bound and objectively checkable: it states what must be reported, by whom, and by what date, before the outcome is known.
• Nothing is edited afterwards. A forecast's question, resolution criteria, probability and dates never change once issued, and no forecast is ever removed. If the assessment changes, a new forecast is issued that supersedes the old one, and both are scored. A question that becomes unanswerable is voided with the reason stated and stays on the list.
• Every verdict is explained and sourced. A forecast is a probability, not a promise: events can turn on factors no open source reveals. When one is reviewed, hit or miss, the record states why and links the reporting the verdict rests on.
• How it is scored. The Brier score is the squared gap between the stated probability and what happened (0 is perfect, 1 is worst). The page shows SOKREN's average next to 0.250, the score for always saying 50%, so you can see whether the forecasts beat a coin flip. Calibration — whether things given 70% happen about 70% of the time — is charted once at least ten forecasts have been reviewed.

Data sources

• Coverage: collected daily from think tanks and conflict analysts (International Crisis Group, CFR, CSIS, Institute for the Study of War, Atlantic Council, RAND, AEI, Stimson Center, 38 North, War on the Rocks, Long War Journal, Bellingcat, Geopolitical Monitor, Lawfare, InSight Crime, Balkan Insight, Foreign Policy, The Diplomat); wire services and international news (AP, Reuters, CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, PBS NewsHour and Frontline, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, NPR, Politico, Axios, BBC World, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, Financial Times, The Economist, France 24, DW, Kyiv Independent); official and humanitarian sources (UN News, ReliefWeb, Security Council Report, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. State Department, CISA); cyber threat intelligence (Google Threat Intelligence / Mandiant, SentinelLabs, The Record, CyberScoop); and the GDELT Project for global coverage. Outlets without a public feed are reached through GDELT's index. Every item links to its original publisher.
• Satellites: navigation (GPS, Galileo, GLONASS, BeiDou), Earth-imaging and the two crewed stations. Starlink has its own layer. Orbits and positions are computed in your browser from the public orbital elements republished by CelesTrak, refreshed twice a day, and drawn around the globe as rings with the satellites moving along them. Each satellite's place around the Earth is true; heights are compressed so that high orbits (GPS is about 20,000 km up) fit on screen. They are predictions from tracking data, not live telemetry, and classified satellites are not in the public catalogue.
• Aircraft: OpenSky Network (one worldwide snapshot about every 4 minutes, shared through the SOKREN relay), with community ADS-B feeds (adsb.lol, adsb.fi) as fallback. Military identification is by ICAO hex allocation, so military aircraft without ADS-B, or outside known ranges, won't appear; absence on the map is not absence in the sky.
• Ships: AISStream.io live AIS, shared through the SOKREN relay. Cables: TeleGeography Submarine Cable Map (CC BY-NC-SA). Basemap: OpenFreeMap vector tiles (OpenMapTiles schema, © OpenStreetMap contributors) with Natural Earth relief.

Limits

Briefs, priority tiers, and index scores are editorial and can lag fast-moving events. Live layers depend on public feeds and community relays and can be intermittent. Cable routes are TeleGeography's public map geometry, which is indicative rather than survey-accurate; when it cannot be reached, a small set of curated trunk corridors is shown instead. This is a free tool for awareness, not a substitute for professional intelligence support. Not affiliated with any government.

Terms of use

• Reading is free. You may use this site for personal and professional reading at no cost.
• No copying or reuse without permission. Scraping, bulk copying, framing the site inside another, or reusing SOKREN's assessments, the SOKREN Threat Index, indicators or forecasts requires written permission from SOKREN.
• Published reports. The report PDFs under Intel Reports are meant to circulate: they may be shared in full and unaltered. Quoting from them requires the attribution below.
• Privacy. No cookies and no advertising. The site keeps an anonymous count of page views — no IP addresses or identifiers are stored — and skips even that when your browser sends Do Not Track or Global Privacy Control. After some browsing the site asks for an email address to continue (free, no password). That address is used only to send occasional SOKREN updates, is never sold or shared, and is not linked to what you view. Remove my email at any time.
• Quoting. Short quotations are welcome with attribution: “Source: SOKREN Global Operations, sokren.com”.
• Not an intelligence product, not advice. Content is provided for awareness, as is, with no warranty of accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose. Do not rely on it for safety, legal, financial or operational decisions.
• Third-party data keeps its own license: GDELT Project; news publishers (headlines link to and remain the property of their publishers); OpenSky Network and community ADS-B feeds (adsb.lol, adsb.fi); AISStream.io; CelesTrak orbital elements and the satellite.js library (MIT); TeleGeography Submarine Cable Map (CC BY-NC-SA); OpenFreeMap, OpenMapTiles and OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL); Natural Earth.
• © 2026 SOKREN. All rights reserved. SOKREN and the SOKREN mark are trademarks of SOKREN.

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